Law of averages

By Paul Bruno

Heading into last night’s contest, the Leafs had to be huge underdogs. Both teams were coming off tough losses and the overwhelming sentiment was that the Leafs would be down after their defeat in Carolina, while the Caps would be angry about their loss to Montreal.

How many goals would and angry Alexander Ovechkin score?

Well, he did get one, but on this night, it was the only goal surrendered by Vesa Toskala, who would finally earn his first win of the season.

The oddest thing about this Leaf win is that they beat the top team in the Eastern Conference standings and actually dominated this contest. They poured 39 shots at Semyon Varlamov and carried the play for most of the night.
Why can’t they play like this most nights? Actually, we have pointed out that they have played very well in a number of games. The statistics are there to show that the Leafs rank third in the league in shots on goal per game. The trouble is that they rank 21st in goals per game. That leads you to believe they are consistently running into hot goalies or they are just plain unlucky.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Too often, their shots have been from well out and there has been little pressure in front of the goal area.

A good storyline leading up to the game was Francois Beauchemin approaching Coach Ron Wilson and asking for the assignment of being on the ice against “the Great #8. He and partner Ian White did a superb job of limiting his space on the ice. It’s good to see players still wanting the opportunity to compete, despite the club’s poor record and a threat from GM Brian Burke that changes would soon come if these Leafs didn’t show something in this game and on Monday against the Islanders.

This win also happened in overtime, where the Leafs were winless in six previous tries. On this night, Phil Kessel paid a dividend with his first shootout goal and Niklas Hagman added the clincher.

They beat Varlamov whose career record dropped to 12-1-2 as a pro.

All these numbers reflect the likelihood that Toronto was due for a win. Last night, they finally got a well-deserved one.